The Price of Entry in the GLP-1 Arms Race
Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) closed Friday, December 5, 2025, at $142.85, up 4.2 percent on heavy volume. This move was not an accident. Smart money is repositioning ahead of the 2026 clinical calendar. For eighteen months, the market has been obsessed with the duopoly of Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk. However, the narrative shifted this week as institutional flows moved toward Viking’s oral formulation of VK2735. The risk is high, but the reward is a slice of a projected $100 billion market. Investors are no longer asking if the drug works. They are asking who will buy the company before the Phase 3 data hits the tape.
The technical mechanism of VK2735 is the primary alpha generator here. Unlike older single-agonist drugs, Viking uses a dual agonist approach targeting both GLP-1 and GIP receptors. Per recent filings at the SEC, Viking has significantly increased its R&D spend to accelerate the oral version. This is the holy grail of metabolic medicine. Patients do not want needles. They want a daily pill that offers the same 15 percent weight loss profile seen in subcutaneous injections. The data from the 48 hours prior to this report suggests that Viking’s oral bioavailability is outpacing the early expectations of its larger competitors.
Visualizing the Competitive Edge
To understand why Wall Street is aggressive on Viking, we must look at the efficacy delta. While Novo Nordisk’s oral semaglutide has struggled with absorption issues, Viking’s early-phase data suggests a steeper weight loss curve over a shorter duration. The following chart illustrates the comparative weight loss percentages at the 13 week mark based on the most recent industry clinical readouts.
The NASH Factor and the MASH Pivot
While the weight loss hype drives the daily ticker, the real institutional floor for Viking is VK2809. This is their TRBeta agonist aimed at Non-Alcoholic Steatohepatitis, now commonly referred to as MASH. According to data tracked by Bloomberg, the MASH market is one of the last major frontiers in hepatology with zero dominant players. Viking’s Phase 2b VOYAGE study showed a statistically significant reduction in liver fat. This is not just about aesthetics. This is about preventing liver failure.
Big Pharma is currently sitting on record cash piles. Companies like Pfizer, which saw their internal GLP-1 efforts stumble earlier this year, are looking for a plug and play asset. Viking fits the profile perfectly. The cost of an acquisition at a 50 percent premium is cheaper than a decade of failed internal R&D. We are seeing a pattern of ‘forced accumulation’ by hedge funds who anticipate a buyout offer before the end of the first half of 2026. The technical setup on the weekly chart shows a massive cup-and-handle pattern that has been forming since the March 2024 highs.
The Math of a Buyout
If we look at the valuation of Madrigal Pharmaceuticals after their recent FDA approval, Viking looks undervalued at its current $15 billion market cap. A comparison of the two pipelines reveals that Viking has broader application across both weight loss and liver disease. This dual-threat capability justifies a valuation closer to $22 billion. Short interest has dropped by 12 percent in the last 30 days, indicating that the bears are retreating as the data becomes too hard to ignore.
| Metric | Viking Therapeutics | Industry Peer Avg |
|---|---|---|
| Cash on Hand | $925 Million | $410 Million |
| Pipeline Depth | 3 Mid-to-Late Stage | 1.5 Mid-to-Late Stage |
| Short Interest % | 6.8% | 9.2% |
| Analyst Consensus | Strong Buy | Hold/Buy |
The risk remains regulatory. The FDA has become increasingly stringent regarding the long term cardiovascular impacts of metabolic drugs. Any hiccup in the upcoming safety data for VK2809 could erase months of gains in minutes. However, the current momentum suggests that the market is pricing in a high probability of success. The volume profile on the December 150-strike calls has exploded, signaling that traders are betting on a major announcement before the year ends.
The Milestone to Watch
The narrative for Viking is no longer about survival but about dominance. The next 90 days will be defined by the finalization of the Phase 3 protocol for the oral VK2735 program. Watch the January 20, 2026, date closely. This is when the company is expected to present at a major healthcare conference where historical precedent suggests they will drop a data update. If the weight loss numbers hold above the 14 percent threshold at the 13 week mark for the oral dose, the $180 price target becomes a conservative baseline. The volume of the 140 call options is the specific data point to watch on Monday morning.
