The Black Friday Post Mortem
Yesterday, the American consumer sent a $11.8 billion message from their mobile devices. According to the latest Adobe Analytics holiday spending data, online sales surged 9.1 percent year over year, reaching a record high even as physical foot traffic in malls declined by 3.6 percent. This is the reality of November 29, 2025. The market no longer rewards the generic concept of passion. It rewards the technical execution of obsession. While Fortune Magazine highlights the sentiment of drive, the actual financial modeling of Q4 2025 suggests that only the most operationally efficient firms are surviving the transition into a high-rate, AI-integrated economy.
Retail has transformed into a game of algorithmic precision. Adobe reported that AI-driven traffic to retail sites grew by 805 percent this season, directly accounting for nearly $3 billion in sales. This is not the result of a vague entrepreneurial spirit. It is the result of massive capital expenditures into generative agents that now handle more than 50 percent of customer service interactions during peak volume hours. The bridge between past assumptions and our current 2025 data shows a widening gap. In 2024, we debated if AI would help. In late 2025, we are watching it take over the checkout lane.
The NVIDIA Panic Trade and the Margin Reality
Data defines current leadership. On November 19, 2025, NVIDIA reported its fiscal 2026 third-quarter report, posting a staggering $57.01 billion in revenue. This represents a 62.5 percent increase year over year. However, the stock experienced a localized panic trade. Why. The market moved past the headline revenue and focused on a subtle dip in gross margins from 75 percent to 73.6 percent. This 140-basis-point contraction triggered a selloff that generic observers couldn’t explain. Investors in late 2025 are no longer satisfied with growth alone. They are scrutinizing inventory and account receivables with an intensity not seen since the 2008 financial crisis.
Obsession manifest in the balance sheet. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang noted that global data center capital expenditure is on track to hit $3 trillion by 2030, but for the immediate November 2025 window, the concern is the supply chain bottleneck for the Blackwell chips. The technical mechanism of the recent selloff was a rotation from euphoria into extreme caution. Analysts began questioning if the hyperscalers can maintain their current pace of spending as the Fed maintains a 3.75 percent benchmark rate. This interest rate environment acts as a gravitational pull on high-multiple tech stocks, forcing them to prove their unit economics in real time.
The Tesla Divergence
Tesla closed yesterday at $430.07. While this marks a gain of 0.85 percent on the day, it follows a month of high volatility where the stock has struggled to maintain its 52 week highs. The divergence here is technical. While retail investors remain obsessed with the Robotaxi vision, institutional analysts at firms like HSBC have recently maintained a Reduce rating. The tension lies in the gap between the obsession with future autonomy and the current reality of automotive gross margins, which have been pressured by aggressive price cuts throughout 2025.
Volume is falling as prices rise. This specific divergence, noted in recent trading sessions, suggests a weakening of the upward trend. When a stock hits higher prices on lower volume, it indicates that the move is driven by a lack of sellers rather than a rush of new buyers. For Tesla, the milestone to watch is the $432.30 resistance level. Breaking through this requires more than just a charismatic tweet. It requires a hard data point on FSD (Full Self-Driving) take rates, which have remained stubbornly opaque to the public despite the 2025 rollout of Version 13.5.
Consumer Sector Performance Comparison Q3 2025
| Category | Spending (USD Billions) | YoY Growth (%) | AI Contribution (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Electronics | 55.3 | 8.8 | 22.4 |
| Apparel | 45.6 | 9.9 | 14.1 |
| Cosmetics | 7.7 | 12.2 | 31.5 |
The Fed and the Neutral Rate Debate
The Federal Reserve is at a crossroads. According to the Federal Open Market Committee November minutes, policymakers are deeply divided. The current benchmark rate of 3.75 percent is nearing what many consider to be the neutral rate. This is the point where the cost of money neither stimulates nor restricts the economy. However, with November inflation cooling to 2.7 percent and unemployment edging up to 4.6 percent, the mandate is under pressure. The obsession with a soft landing has led to three consecutive 25-basis-point cuts, but the market is now pricing in a pause for January.
Inflation is no longer the primary monster. The risk has shifted to the labor market. The 43-day government shutdown earlier this year left a massive hole in the data that economists are still trying to fill. We are operating in a fog of war. The S&P 500’s current level of 6,849.09 reflects an 11.2 percent year-to-date gain, but this growth is concentrated in just seven names. For the rest of the market, the 3.75 percent rate is a significant hurdle for refinancing debt and funding new growth. Passion cannot pay the interest on a corporate bond, but margin-focused obsession can.
The focus now shifts toward the final weeks of the year. The primary milestone to monitor is the January 9, 2026, jobs report. This single data point will determine if the Fed proceeds with a final 25-basis-point cut in the winter or if the 3.75 percent plateau becomes the new baseline for the foreseeable future. Watch the 4.6 percent unemployment threshold. Any move toward 4.8 percent will likely trigger a deeper revaluation of the risk-on trade that has dominated the latter half of 2025.
