The Ghost of Black Friday Past
Retailers are bleeding. On November 28, 2025, Black Friday spending hit a record $11.4 billion in online sales, but the headline masks a terminal illness in corporate margins. While the latest Reuters retail pulse suggests consumer resilience, the reality is a desperate 35 percent average discount rate across electronics and apparel. We are witnessing a massive transfer of wealth from corporate balance sheets to a consumer base that is increasingly reliant on credit to keep the lights on.
The PCE Print that Markets Ignored
Inflation is not dead. On Wednesday, November 26, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released the October PCE Price Index showing a 2.4 percent year over year increase. While the headline figure aligned with consensus, the core service sector inflation, excluding housing, remains stuck at a stubborn 3.2 percent. The Federal Reserve’s pivot to a neutral rate is stalling. Trading desks in Manhattan spent the 48 hours leading into the holiday weekend pricing in a 65 percent probability of a ‘hold’ at the December meeting, a sharp reversal from the optimism of early November.
The Buy Now Pay Later Timebomb
Follow the debt. Affirm and Klarna reported a 22 percent surge in volume during the 48 hour Black Friday window. This is not disposable income; it is a shadow credit system. Per the Bloomberg credit analysis published yesterday, delinquency rates for consumers aged 18 to 25 have spiked to 11.8 percent, the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis. The market is ignoring the fact that the ‘Santa Rally’ is being funded by 24.99 percent APR interest traps. If the job market softens by even 50 basis points in the next sixty days, this consumer credit stack collapses like a house of cards.
Tech Capex and the Nvidia Ceiling
The AI narrative is hitting a wall of diminishing returns. Nvidia (NVDA) shares dipped 1.4 percent in the shortened Friday session as analysts at Yahoo Finance highlighted a shift in hyperscaler behavior. Microsoft and Meta are no longer buying H100s at any price; they are optimizing existing clusters. The ‘infinite demand’ story of 2024 has been replaced by a rigorous ROI audit. When the primary customers of the world’s most valuable company start questioning the utility of their $50 billion annual spend, the equity risk premium must be recalculated. The current P/E ratios are pricing in a perfection that the November data simply does not support.
The Liquidity Squeeze in Crypto
Digital assets are feeling the pressure of a strengthening Dollar Index (DXY), which touched 107.2 this morning. Bitcoin’s failure to reclaim the $100,000 psychological barrier during the Thanksgiving liquidity lull suggests a massive distribution phase. Institutional ‘whales’ are using the retail holiday optimism to exit positions. We are seeing a divergence where Bitcoin is no longer tracking the NASDAQ, but instead behaving like a high beta version of the regional banking index, which is struggling under the weight of commercial real estate resets.
Watch the January 12 Payroll Data
The euphoria of the holiday season will meet reality on January 12, 2026. This is the date when the first comprehensive labor market report of the new year will be released. If the ‘quit rate’ continues its downward trajectory observed throughout November 2025, it will confirm that the American worker is scared. Watch the 10-year Treasury yield. If it breaks 4.65 percent before the year ends, the cost of servicing the national debt will force a fiscal reckoning that no amount of holiday spending can offset.
