The Fourteen Billion Euro Vanishing Act
Six million shares of Hermès International SCA have disappeared from the balance sheet of Nicolas Puech. This is not a clerical error. At the current market price of 2,345 Euro per share as of December 03, 2025, the missing 5.7 percent stake is valued at approximately 14.1 billion Euro. This legal volatility arrives at a moment when the luxury sector is decoupling. While LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE struggles with a 12 percent year over year decline in its fashion and leather goods division in mainland China, Hermès continues to trade at a 52 percent premium to its peer group. The litigation centered in the Geneva Court of Justice targets Puech’s former wealth manager, Eric Freymond, alleging a systematic liquidation of assets that were intended to be transferred to a foundation or a former domestic employee. The financial implications for the public float are severe. If these 6 million shares were sold into the open market without disclosure, it would represent the largest shadow liquidation in the history of European luxury goods.
Institutional Exposure and the Ghost of the 2010 Raid
The current legal friction cannot be analyzed without referencing the 2010 stealth acquisition of Hermès shares by Bernard Arnault. LVMH used cash settled equity swaps through subsidiaries in Luxembourg and Panama to bypass the 5 percent, 10 percent, and 15 percent disclosure thresholds required by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers. While that dispute was settled in 2014 with LVMH distributing its 23 percent stake to its own shareholders, the Puech litigation suggests that the Hermès family’s fortress is less secure than institutional investors previously modeled. The table below breaks down the current ownership structure of Hermès as of the Q3 2025 filings.
| Entity | Percentage Held | Market Value (Billions) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| H51 SAS (Family Holding) | 54.3% | €134.1 | Locked |
| Other Family Members | 12.4% | €30.6 | Restricted |
| Public Float (Institutional) | 27.6% | €68.2 | Active |
| Nicolas Puech (Contested) | 5.7% | €14.1 | Unknown/Missing |
Comparative Market Performance and Price Divergence
The divergence between Hermès (RMS.PA) and LVMH (MC.PA) has reached an all time high in the fourth quarter of 2025. Data from Yahoo Finance indicates that LVMH has seen its price to earnings ratio compress to 18x, while Hermès maintains a 48x multiple. The market is pricing Hermès as a Veblen asset immune to the cyclical downturn affecting the broader luxury index. However, the Puech lawsuit introduces a technical risk: the sudden re entry of 5.7 percent of the total share capital into the float. This volume would overwhelm daily liquidity, which currently averages only 85,000 shares per session on the Euronext Paris.
The Swiss Legal Deadlock
Geneva prosecutors are currently investigating the transfer of these shares through a web of accounts at Banque Pictet and other private Swiss institutions. Unlike the French AMF, Swiss banking secrecy laws provide a shield that has delayed the recovery of the physical share certificates. The defense argues that Nicolas Puech signed over the management of these assets with full capacity, a claim the 81 year old heir now disputes. Investigative reports from Bloomberg suggest that the shares were moved in small tranches between 2018 and 2023, coinciding with several significant buyback programs initiated by the Hermès board. If the court finds that these shares were sold to cover Freymond’s personal investment losses, the civil liability would be the largest in the history of Swiss private banking. This is not just a family feud, it is a structural threat to the scarcity model that supports the Hermès valuation.
Technical Analysis of the Potential Float Shock
Quantitative analysts at major European brokerages have begun modeling the impact of a 5.7 percent supply shock. Under a scenario where the Geneva court orders the freezing and eventual liquidation of the contested shares to satisfy creditors, the downward pressure on RMS.PA would likely trigger a 15 to 20 percent correction, bringing the stock back toward the 1,900 Euro support level. This would effectively erase 40 billion Euro in market capitalization. The concentration of ownership within the H51 holding company prevents a hostile takeover, but it does not prevent a liquidity crisis. Investors are currently paying for a low float, high demand asset. The Puech case proves that the float might be significantly higher and less stable than the annual reports suggest.
The next major data point occurs on February 14, 2026, when the Geneva Public Prosecutor is scheduled to release the preliminary audit of the Freymond accounts. This report will confirm whether the 6 million shares still exist in their original form or if they have been fragmented across the global derivative market.
