The Era of the Swiss Middleman is Dead
Commodity trading houses are built on the friction of inefficiency. For decades, Geneva served as the friction point for global oil. But the numbers released by Gunvor Group in late 2025 tell a different story. The firm reported a net profit of 120.8 million dollars for the first half of 2025. This represents a staggering 71 percent collapse from the 417 million dollars recorded in the same period a year prior. While revenues climbed 8.6 percent to 73.6 billion dollars, the margins that once sustained the industry have vanished. The surplus of crude and the tightening of arbitrage spreads have forced a radical rethink at the highest levels of the firm.
The Jeff Frase Factor and the Houston Pivot
Torbjörn Törnqvist is no longer looking to the Lake Geneva shoreline for answers. Instead, the focus has shifted to Houston. The elevation of Jeff Frase, the veteran American oil trader formerly of Noble Group and JPMorgan, marks the definitive end of Gunvor’s old guard. Frase was brought in to overhaul the US business, which Törnqvist admitted showed softer performance in the early months of 2025. The Americanization of Gunvor is not merely a personnel change. It is a structural survival mechanism. Per reports from Reuters, the firm is now implementing a conservative approach to limit downside risk in an oversupplied market.
Frase brings a different psychological profile to the trading floor. Unlike the traditional Swiss model of secretive, long-term physical flows, the American style favors aggressive financial hedging and asset-backed trading. This shift is necessary because the physical oil market is currently broken. On November 30, 2025, the eight core members of OPEC+ met virtually and decided to pause production increases for the first quarter of 2026. This decision was a desperate attempt to defend a 60 dollar floor for Brent crude, which has traded in a narrow, frustrating range throughout November. For a house like Gunvor, which thrives on volatility, this stability is a slow poison.
Comparative Performance H1 2024 vs H1 2025
| Metric | H1 2024 (Actual) | H1 2025 (Actual) | Percentage Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net Profit (USD) | 417 Million | 120.8 Million | -71.0% |
| Revenue (USD) | 67.8 Billion | 73.6 Billion | +8.6% |
| Trade Volume (Metric Tons) | 109.2 Million | 123 Million | +12.6% |
| Natural Gas Volume (Metric Tons) | 22.1 Million | 38 Million | +72.0% |
The Liquefied Natural Gas Lifeline
If oil is the anchor, gas is the engine. Gunvor’s internal reports indicate that its Liquefied Natural Gas business was the primary profit contributor in 2025. Natural gas volumes surged 72 percent to reach 38 million tons. This pivot is not accidental. The firm recently secured a 20 year agreement with Amigo LNG in Mexico to purchase 0.85 million tonnes per annum starting later this decade. This long-dated strategy contrasts sharply with the frantic spot trading of the past. As noted by the International Energy Agency in its December report, global oil supply growth is expected to outpace demand by nearly 3 million barrels per day in 2025, leaving oil traders with little room to breathe.
Visualizing the Market Compression
The following visualization tracks the decline in Brent Crude prices leading up to the December 01, 2025 market open. The compression of the Brent-WTI spread has directly eroded Gunvor’s ability to execute profitable trans-Atlantic arbitrage, explaining the disconnect between their rising volumes and falling profits.
Managing the Geopolitical Disconnect
The markets have recently turned sharply on news that is often disconnected from fundamental supply and demand. Gunvor leadership has noted that price swings in late 2025 were largely driven by sentiment rather than tangible barrels. The OPEC+ decision on November 30 to retain full flexibility in their voluntary production cuts is a double-edged sword. While it prevents a total price collapse, it also kills the volatility that traders like Jeff Frase need to generate outsized returns. Data from Bloomberg suggests that the eight participating countries are now prioritizing market stability over market share, a move that forces trading houses to act more like logistics firms and less like speculators.
The January 2026 Milestone
The strategic shift toward Houston and the elevation of American leadership is a hedge against a stagnant European market. Gunvor is betting that the US energy sector will provide the necessary arbitrage through refined products and LNG exports that the stagnant crude market no longer offers. The next specific data point for the industry will arrive on January 4, 2026. This is when the OPEC+ ministerial committee will meet virtually to confirm if the production pause will be extended into the second quarter. If the pause is maintained, Gunvor’s reliance on its LNG desk will only deepen. Watch for the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) export volumes in the second week of January as the first true test of Jeff Frase’s new American strategy.
