The Segovia High Grade Engine
Gold prices touched $2,765 per ounce this morning, according to Reuters commodity data, providing a massive tailwind for high-grade operators. Aris Mining (ARMN) currently relies on its Segovia Operations in Colombia to generate the bulk of its free cash flow. This is not a speculative exploration play. It is a production story. In the third quarter of 2025, Segovia processed 11.2 grams per tonne (g/t) gold. This grade remains in the top decile of global underground mines. While majors like Newmont struggle with declining grades at aging assets, Aris is extracting 195,000 to 210,000 ounces annually from this single complex.
Costs dictate survival. The All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC) at Segovia for the 2025 fiscal year has stabilized at $1,185 per ounce. With gold trading nearly $1,500 above this production cost, the margin expansion is surgical. Management has utilized this cash to fund the Marmato Lower Mine expansion without diluting shareholders through secondary offerings in late 2025. The operational efficiency at Segovia is driven by the Maria Dama and El Silencio mines, where recent drill results from the 1,200-meter level confirmed the continuity of the high-grade vein systems. These are not just guesses. These are proven reserves totaling 1.3 million ounces at Segovia alone.
The Marmato Lower Mine Execution
Execution risk is the primary focus for institutional investors. The Marmato Lower Mine project is the catalyst required to move Aris Mining from a junior-mid-tier producer to a senior-mid-tier player. As of December 12, 2025, construction of the processing plant and the new decline is 92 percent complete. This project targets the Porphyry mineralization sitting beneath the existing Upper Mine. Unlike the vein-style mining at Segovia, Marmato Lower Mine utilizes long-hole stoping. This is a bulk-tonnage method designed for scale.
Capital expenditure for Marmato was pegged at $280 million. Data from the Q3 2025 financial disclosure shows that $255 million has already been deployed. The funding gap was closed using the $300 million senior notes due in 2026, a move that kept the balance sheet lean during the high-interest rate environment of the past 24 months. Per Yahoo Finance market tracking, the stock has begun pricing in the first gold pour, which is scheduled for early next year. If the mill reaches its 4,000 tonne-per-day capacity, Aris will effectively double its consolidated production profile.
Asset Comparison and Reserve Data
To understand the valuation gap, one must look at the reserves. Aris Mining is currently trading at an Enterprise Value (EV) per reserve ounce that is significantly lower than its peers. This is largely due to the perceived jurisdictional risk of operating in Colombia. However, the 2024 ratification of the mining code updates has provided a clearer framework for environmental permitting. The Soto Norte project remains the long-term growth lever, representing a joint venture where Aris can earn up to 50 percent interest. Soto Norte contains an indicated resource of 8.5 million ounces of gold, which provides a multi-decade runway beyond the current Marmato expansion.
| Asset Name | Type | Reserves (P+P) | Average Grade | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Segovia Operations | Underground Vein | 1.3 Moz Au | 10.8 g/t | Producing |
| Marmato Upper Mine | Underground Vein | 0.5 Moz Au | 4.1 g/t | Producing |
| Marmato Lower Mine | Porphyry Bulk | 2.7 Moz Au | 2.4 g/t | Construction |
| Soto Norte (JV) | Feasibility | 8.5 Moz Au (Ind) | 5.5 g/t | Permitting |
The AISC Reality Check
The consolidated AISC is expected to shift as Marmato Lower Mine comes online. Bulk mining typically carries lower per-tonne costs but involves higher energy consumption. The shift in Aris Mining’s cost structure is a critical data point for the first half of 2026. If the company maintains a consolidated AISC below $1,300 while gold remains above $2,500, the free cash flow yield will exceed 15 percent. This is a level rarely seen in the mining sector without significant debt distress. As of December 2025, the net debt to EBITDA ratio sits at a manageable 1.4x.
Institutional accumulation has increased. Large funds are moving into Aris as a mid-cap hedge against currency debasement. According to reports from Bloomberg, the rotation into profitable mid-tier gold producers has accelerated as investors move away from overvalued tech equities. Aris Mining’s inclusion in the GDXJ index has also increased daily liquidity, allowing for larger entry positions without significant price slippage. The technical breakout above $5.20 on the NYSE American exchange suggests that the market is finally validating the Marmato construction progress.
The Soto Norte Permitting Milestone
Looking ahead, the next major data release will not be production numbers, but the environmental impact assessment (EIA) progress for Soto Norte. The project has undergone significant redesigns to move the processing facilities away from the Paramo de Santurban, a sensitive ecological zone. This technical pivot was necessary to satisfy the Colombian National Environmental Licensing Authority (ANLA). The successful permitting of Soto Norte would effectively triple the company’s resource base, making it an attractive acquisition target for a Tier 1 senior producer looking to replenish its pipeline.
The immediate focus for January 2026 is the dry commissioning of the Marmato Lower Mine mill. Investors should monitor the recovery rates during the initial ramp-up phase. If gold recovery exceeds the 90 percent threshold during the first 30 days of operation, the production guidance for 2026 will likely be revised upward. Watch for the Q4 2025 production update due in the third week of January for confirmation of the final construction expenditures.
