The barrels are missing. Goldman Sachs knows it. Jerome Dortmans, the co-head of Global Oil and Products Trading, just confirmed the suspicion on the latest episode of The Markets podcast. The quiet period for energy markets ended this morning. Brent crude is testing the upper bounds of its recent range. The narrative of a well supplied global market is disintegrating under the weight of physical reality.
The Dortmans Doctrine
Jerome Dortmans does not trade on sentiment. He trades on flows. His recent commentary suggests that the structural deficit in the oil market is deeper than the consensus believes. While the broader market focused on interest rate pivots, the physical oil market tightened. Refineries are running at maximum utilization. Inventory draws in the Cushing hub are accelerating. Goldman Sachs is now signaling that the risk to the upside is no longer a tail risk. It is the base case.
The technical setup is aggressive. We are seeing a sharp steepening of the backwardation in the Brent futures curve. This indicates that traders are willing to pay a massive premium for immediate delivery. According to data tracked by Bloomberg Energy, the spread between the front-month and the six-month contract has widened to levels not seen since the supply shocks of late 2024. This is not a speculative bubble. It is a scramble for physical molecules.
The Spare Capacity Myth
OPEC+ is playing a dangerous game. The market assumes there is a massive cushion of spare capacity waiting to be tapped. The reality is more nuanced. Many member nations are struggling to meet their existing quotas. Infrastructure degradation in West Africa and political instability in parts of the Middle East have neutered the cartel’s ability to respond to sudden demand spikes. Goldman’s trading desk is betting that the cushion is thinner than the official Reuters Energy reports suggest.
Demand is the second half of the pincer movement. Emerging markets are not slowing down. Despite the high interest rate environment in the West, industrial demand in Southeast Asia is hitting record highs. The energy transition is not happening fast enough to offset the expansion of traditional fuel consumption. We are witnessing a collision between under-investment in fossil fuels and a resilient global economy.
Investment Bank Forecasts for Q2 and Q3
The divergence between major desks is widening. While some maintain a cautious outlook, the heavyweights are moving their price targets higher. The table below outlines the current projections as of March 5.
| Financial Institution | Q2 2026 Target (Brent) | Q3 2026 Target (Brent) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | $98.00 | $105.00 | Strongly Bullish |
| JPMorgan Chase | $92.00 | $96.00 | Moderate Bullish |
| Morgan Stanley | $89.00 | $91.00 | Neutral |
| Citigroup | $84.00 | $82.00 | Bearish |
Jerome Dortmans’ focus on products is critical. It is not just about the crude. It is about the distillates. Diesel and jet fuel cracks are expanding. This puts pressure on the entire value chain. If the refining capacity cannot keep up with the crude throughput, we see a bottleneck that drives prices higher for the end consumer regardless of the headline oil price. This is the ‘hidden’ inflation that central banks fear.
The geopolitical risk premium is also being repriced. The stability of the Strait of Hormuz is once again a primary concern for maritime insurers. Any disruption in that corridor would send Goldman’s $105 target into the rearview mirror within hours. The market is currently pricing in a 15 percent probability of a major supply disruption. That number feels low given the current diplomatic friction.
Watch the upcoming OPEC+ ministerial meeting on April 1. This will be the first real test of the cartel’s resolve in the face of $95 oil. If they do not announce a significant production increase, the path to $110 is wide open. The physical market is screaming. The only question is how long the paper market can ignore it.
