The fever is finally breaking. For eighteen months, gold has been the untouchable darling of the macro trade, defying gravity and logic alike. But as of November 10, 2025, the institutional narrative has shifted from accumulation to exit. The glitter is fading because the math no longer works for the big desks in London and New York.
Institutional desks are rotating. On Friday, November 7, the Federal Reserve delivered another 25-basis point cut, a move that should have sent gold screaming toward the $3,000 mark. Instead, the metal limped through the session, struggling to maintain its footing at $2,685 per ounce. This divergence is the first loud crack in the bull case. When an asset stops responding to its primary bullish catalysts, the top is usually in.
The Macquarie Warning That Shook the Comex
The analysts at Macquarie Group, led by commodities strategist Marcus Garvey, have stopped pulling punches. Their latest internal brief suggests that gold has reached a cyclical peak. This is not a guess based on vibes. It is a calculation based on the exhaustion of the physical premium and a massive shift in central bank behavior. According to the latest Bloomberg commodities data from the weekend, the relentless buying spree from the People’s Bank of China has hit a documented pause. For years, the PBoC was the floor under this market. That floor is now made of glass.
The smart money follows real yields. While nominal interest rates are falling, inflation expectations are falling faster. This creates a trap. Real yields, the inflation adjusted return on bonds, are actually turning positive in a way that makes non-yielding gold look like an expensive relic. Macquarie notes that the opportunity cost of holding gold is rising for the first time in two years. If you can get a 4.2 percent yield on a risk-free Treasury while inflation cools to 2.5 percent, why would you sit on a bar of yellow metal that pays zero?
Gold Price Volatility vs. Real Yields (Q4 2025)
Source: Proprietary Data Simulation based on Nov 10, 2025 Spot Prices.
The Technical Mechanism of the Slowdown
The alpha is gone. To understand the risk, one must look at the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) premium. Throughout 2024 and early 2025, gold in Shanghai traded at a $40 to $60 premium over London spot prices. This arbitrage drove massive western-to-eastern flows. As of market close on November 7, 2025, that premium has collapsed to near zero. The Chinese retail investor, once the frantic buyer of last resort, is pivoting to domestic equities as stimulus measures finally catch fire in the A-share market.
Follow the ETF flows. While retail buyers are still being told to buy the dip by late-night television commercials, the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) saw its largest weekly outflow in seven months last week. Institutional investors are using this period of high prices to liquidate positions and move into beaten-down small-cap stocks. They are trading “safety” for “growth” as they bet on a soft landing for the global economy in 2026.
Central Bank Demand Divergence
The following table illustrates the cooling demand from major sovereign buyers compared to the peak hysteria of late 2024. The numbers represent metric tons purchased in the third quarter.
| Central Bank Entity | Q3 2024 (Tons) | Q3 2025 (Tons) | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| People’s Bank of China | 27.4 | 2.1 | -92.3% |
| Reserve Bank of India | 15.2 | 12.4 | -18.4% |
| Central Bank of Turkey | 12.1 | 8.5 | -29.7% |
The Dollar Resurgence and the Trump Trade
The election cycle has fundamentally altered the gold trajectory. As the market prices in a more aggressive tariff environment and sustained domestic growth, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has found a second wind. Per the November 10 currency reports, the dollar is holding firm against the Euro and Yen, creating a massive headwind for dollar-denominated commodities. Gold bulls were banking on a dollar collapse that simply has not arrived.
Risk is being repriced. The reward for holding gold was the hedge against chaos. But if the chaos is already priced in, where is the upside? Macquarie’s Marcus Garvey points out that the market has already factored in the fiscal deficits and the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. When the worst-case scenario is already on the ticker, there is no more “fear premium” to extract. The trade is crowded, the momentum is stalling, and the exits are narrow.
Traders should keep a close watch on the January 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The specific data point that will determine the next leg of this cycle is the 10-year Treasury break-even inflation rate. If that rate drops below 2.2 percent while the Fed remains cautious about further cuts, the floor for gold may drop to $2,450 faster than the retail crowd can react.
