Wall Street is whistling past the graveyard
The headline numbers look fantastic. On this Thursday, November 06, 2025, the mainstream media is obsessed with the post election market rally, but the underlying data tells a far more sinister story. While the latest ING Economic Update suggests a resilient global economy, a forensic look at the balance sheets reveals a temporary reprieve fueled by unsustainable debt. The resilience is not a sign of health. It is a symptom of delayed pain.
The ING report exposes the cracks
ING analysts are finally admitting what the bond market has signaled for months. The global economy is operating on borrowed time. Per the report, the unexpected strength in 2025 was driven by a final surge in pandemic era savings that have now officially hit zero for the bottom 80 percent of households. According to Reuters reporting on the Federal Reserve, the central bank is trapped. They cannot cut rates aggressively enough to save the housing market without reigniting the 3.4 percent core inflation that refuses to die. The technical term for this is a stagflationary trap, though ING prefers the more diplomatic term, fragile stability.
Yield Curve Spread (10Y-2Y) November 2025
The consumer is tapped out
Retail sales numbers are a lie. While the nominal value of goods sold has increased, the volume of units moved has stagnated. This is purely a function of price gouging and inflation. Credit card delinquencies among the 24 to 35 age demographic have surged to 9.2 percent this week, surpassing the peaks seen during the 2008 financial crisis. The current market strength is a facade built on the top 10 percent of earners who are still benefiting from the S&P 500 wealth effect. For everyone else, the economy is already in a recession.
| Economic Indicator | Nov 2024 Actual | Nov 2025 Current | ING 2026 Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Core CPI | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.9% |
| Federal Funds Rate | 4.75% | 4.50% | 3.75% |
| Gold (per oz) | $2,650 | $2,745 | $3,100 |
| Eurozone GDP Growth | 0.8% | 0.3% | -0.1% |
Geopolitics is the wild card
Energy markets are on a knife edge. As of this morning, Brent Crude is hovering at $78.40, but this does not account for the escalating shipping insurance premiums in the Red Sea. Per Bloomberg Terminal data, the cost of moving a standard container from Shanghai to Rotterdam has spiked 14 percent in the last 48 hours. This is a supply side shock that central banks cannot fix with interest rate hikes. If energy prices break $90 before the end of the year, the soft landing narrative will evaporate instantly.
The mechanism of the corporate debt trap
The real danger lies in the maturity wall. Over $2 trillion in corporate debt is scheduled for refinancing in the next fourteen months. These companies are moving from 3 percent interest rates to 7 or 8 percent. This is not a gradual adjustment. It is a cliff. Small and medium enterprises, which employ nearly half of the private workforce, are the most exposed. We are starting to see the first wave of Chapter 11 filings in the zombie retail sector, which has been kept alive by revolving credit lines that are now being revoked by jittery regional banks.
Watching the January liquidity window
The next major data point that will determine the fate of the 2026 fiscal cycle is the Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement. If the government continues to flood the market with short term bills to fund the deficit, we will see a massive crowding out effect that will starve the private sector of capital. Investors should ignore the post election euphoria and watch the 10 year yield. A move above 4.8 percent before the New Year will signal that the bond vigilantes have returned to punish the fiscal profligacy of the past decade. The window for a painless exit has closed.
