Liquidity evaporated. The wall fell. For three weeks, the $90,000 level acted as the psychological and structural fortress for the digital asset market. That fortress is now in ruins. As of November 19, 2025, Bitcoin has slipped into a precarious consolidation zone between $87,000 and $88,400, marking a definitive end to the post-halving euphoria that defined the third quarter.
The Ghost of the October Liquidation
To understand today’s price action, one must look back to the October 10 liquidation cascade. In a single six-hour window, over $19 billion in leveraged long positions were vaporized. This was not a retail flush; it was an institutional de-risking event triggered by a sudden spike in U.S. Treasury yields. While the market attempted a shallow recovery in early November, the underlying structure remained hollow. The current move below $90,000 is the secondary tremor of that October collapse.
Institutional discipline has replaced speculative mania. For the first time in 2025, global crypto ETFs are reporting net monthly outflows, currently totaling $2.95 billion. BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC, which provided a relentless bid throughout the spring, have seen their daily inflows turn into a trickle. According to recent data on the November CPI report, a resurgent inflation print of 2.9% has forced asset managers to reclassify Bitcoin not as ‘digital gold,’ but as a high-beta tech proxy. This shift in categorization is visible in the correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100, which has climbed to a 2025 average of 0.52.
The Exchange Reserve Drain
A curious divergence is emerging on-chain. While the price falters, exchange reserves have plummeted to 1.82 million BTC, a six-year low. This suggests that while ETFs are seeing redemptions, long-term sovereign and corporate treasuries are quietly absorbing spot supply. This is a classic ‘supply-side’ squeeze in development, but it lacks the immediate ‘demand-side’ catalyst to overcome the macro headwinds. The market is currently in a state of ‘illiquid stasis’ where the available float is shrinking, but the cost of capital is too high for new buyers to step in.
The Short-Term Holder Squeeze
The technical pain point is the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price. For much of the 2024-2025 bull cycle, this metric acted as a floor. Today, it has become a ceiling. With the STH cost basis sitting near $104,000, roughly 85% of investors who entered the market in the last six months are currently underwater. This creates a ‘sell-the-rally’ mentality that smothers any attempt at a breakout.
| Market Peak Period | STH Realized Price | Spot Price Deviation | Resulting Drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|
| April 2024 (Post-Halving) | $68,500 | +8% | -15% |
| March 2025 (ETF Mania) | $92,000 | +12% | -22% |
| October 2025 (Blow-off Top) | $104,600 | -16% (Current) | Ongoing |
The table above illustrates the severity of the current disconnect. In previous local tops, the spot price traded significantly above the STH cost basis, allowing for a healthy ‘cooling off’ period. In November 2025, we are trading significantly below it. This is a structural bear trap. When the majority of recent participants are in the red, every $1,000 move upward is met with a wave of ‘break-even’ sell orders from panicked retail and mid-tier hedge funds.
Miner Capitulation and Hashrate Resilience
Miners are feeling the burn. The halving of 2024 was survived through sheer efficiency, but the Q4 2025 price correction is testing the limits of the S19 XP and newer S21 fleets. Breakeven electricity prices for top-tier operations have dropped to $0.077/kWh, forcing less efficient miners to liquidate their remaining treasury holdings to stay solvent. Interestingly, the network hashrate hit a record 892 EH/s this week, suggesting that while small players are dying, industrial-scale miners are doubling down, anticipating a 2026 recovery.
This is a war of attrition. The ‘Saylor Factor’—the relentless accumulation by corporate treasuries—is no longer enough to counteract the massive year-end tax-loss harvesting we are witnessing. Large institutional desks are realized losses on their Bitcoin positions to offset gains in the AI-driven equity markets. This is a seasonal phenomenon, but in a market with such thin liquidity, its impact is amplified.
The Road to January 2026
The immediate outlook remains defensive. We are watching the ‘True Market Mean’—an on-chain metric that historically signals the bottom of mid-cycle corrections. That level currently sits at $81,000. If the $85,000 psychological support fails to hold through the Thanksgiving holiday, a rapid wick down to the $81,000 handle is not just possible; it is the most probable outcome based on current order-book depth.
The next major milestone for the market is the January 2026 ‘Reload.’ Historically, the first week of the new fiscal year sees a massive reversal in ETF flows as capital is re-allocated into risk assets. Until then, the market must digest the remaining $6.5 billion in potential sell pressure from the U.S. Department of Justice’s Silk Road holdings. Keep a close eye on the Coinbase Premium Index; if it remains in negative territory (currently -0.09), the institutional bid is still on the sidelines, waiting for a final flush toward $80,000 before the 2026 cycle begins.
