The filings don’t lie
The 13F regulatory disclosures released on November 14 have dismantled the prevailing market myth. While retail speculators spent the last quarter whispering about a value pivot into big tech, Warren Buffett remained motionless. Berkshire Hathaway does not hold a stake in Alphabet. This is not a clerical oversight. It is a strategic rejection of a company currently caught in the crosshairs of the federal government. The latest SEC filings confirm that Berkshire’s cash hoard has ballooned to a record 382 billion dollars. This liquidity is a weapon, yet it remains holstered. Buffett is not buying the AI revolution because he sees the structural decay underneath the glossy earnings reports.
The antitrust overhang is a permanent weight
Alphabet is facing its most dangerous period since its inception. The Department of Justice is no longer just barking. They are moving to dismantle the search monopoly. The remedial phase of the antitrust trial is looking increasingly grim for shareholders. Per recent Bloomberg reports, the government is weighing a forced divestiture of the Chrome browser and the Android operating system. This is the catch that the bulls ignore. A search engine without integrated distribution is just an algorithm without a home. The costs to acquire traffic would skyrocket, obliterating the operating margins that investors have taken for granted for a decade.
Valuation traps in a high-rate environment
Growth at any cost is a dead philosophy. The current market is punishing companies that cannot prove AI return on investment. Alphabet is spending billions on capital expenditures for data centers, yet the monetization path remains murky. The chart below illustrates the massive disconnect between Berkshire’s growing dry powder and the volatile market capitalization of the search giant through mid-November 2025.
Comparing the tech heavyweights
The numbers reveal a startling disparity in risk. While Alphabet trades at a lower forward multiple than its peers, the discount is justified by the legal risk. Unlike Microsoft or Meta, Alphabet’s core revenue stream is under direct threat from generative search engines and regulatory dismemberment. The following table highlights the financial landscape as of November 18, 2025, based on Reuters financial data.
| Company | Market Cap (T) | Forward P/E | Cash on Hand (B) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alphabet (GOOGL) | 2.10 | 22.4 | 112 |
| Microsoft (MSFT) | 3.15 | 34.1 | 80 |
| Berkshire (BRK.B) | 0.98 | 19.8 | 382 |
Buffett’s preference for cash over Alphabet is a loud signal. He is waiting for a washout. The current 22.4 forward P/E ratio for Alphabet does not account for the potential loss of the default search status on Apple devices. If the DOJ succeeds in banning those multi-billion dollar payments, Alphabet’s traffic acquisition costs will balloon overnight. This is the risk profile that Berkshire avoids. They buy moats. They do not buy companies whose moats are being drained by the federal government.
The AI margin squeeze
Every dollar Alphabet earns is becoming more expensive to generate. Training Large Language Models requires a level of energy and silicon expenditure that traditional search never did. This is a fundamental shift in the business model. The efficiency of the old Google is gone. It has been replaced by a capital-intensive arms race. Berkshire’s refusal to participate is a bet on the eventual return of sanity. They are sitting on the sidelines because the risk-to-reward ratio has skewed heavily toward risk. The hype cycle is ending, and the reality of infrastructure costs is setting in. Watch the January 20, 2026, deadline for the DOJ’s final proposed remedy. That specific date will mark the beginning of the end for the search monopoly as we know it.
