The ghost of WeWork is finally dead. Masayoshi Son has traded the wreckage of co-working spaces for the high-octane fuel of generative artificial intelligence. SoftBank Group Corp. reported a staggering $2.4 billion quarterly gain for its Vision Fund unit this morning. The catalyst is no longer a mystery. It is OpenAI. The math is simple. The execution was brutal. After years of being the punching bag of the venture capital world, Son is laughing again. This is not a recovery based on sentiment. It is a recovery built on the hardware and software layers of the most aggressive technological shift since the internet.
The Valuation Pivot
SoftBank is no longer a venture capital firm. It is an AI holding company. The $2.4 billion gain reported on February 12 represents a pivot from defensive posturing to offensive capture. According to data released in the latest quarterly filings, the Vision Fund’s stake in OpenAI has become the crown jewel of a portfolio that was previously drowning in overvalued consumer apps. The surge in OpenAI’s internal valuation, driven by the rollout of advanced agentic systems in late 2025, has provided the necessary lift. SoftBank’s strategy involved a late but massive entry into the OpenAI ecosystem, capitalizing on the transition from a non-profit controlled entity to a more traditional corporate structure.
Vision Fund Quarterly Net Income Performance (USD Billions)
The mechanics of this gain are rooted in mark-to-market accounting for private assets. As OpenAI secured new funding rounds at valuations exceeding $150 billion, SoftBank was forced to revalue its holding. This is not realized cash. It is a paper gain. However, in the world of Masayoshi Son, paper gains are the precursor to massive margin loans. These loans provide the liquidity needed to double down on the next frontier: custom silicon. SoftBank is reportedly looking to integrate its ARM Holdings architecture more deeply with OpenAI’s infrastructure needs. This vertical integration is the real story behind the numbers.
The Infrastructure Play
Financial analysts are dissecting the discrepancy between Vision Fund 1 and Vision Fund 2. While the first fund remains a cautionary tale of excess, the second fund has been surgical. It avoided the late-stage bloat of 2021. Instead, it focused on the plumbing of the AI era. Per reports from Reuters, SoftBank has quietly accumulated stakes in mid-tier chip designers and data center cooling specialists. These boring companies are the ones making the OpenAI gains sustainable. Without the hardware to run the models, the software is worthless. Son understands this better than most. He is betting that the world will need ten times the current compute capacity by 2030.
SoftBank Group Key Financial Metrics Q3 FY2025
| Metric | Value (Billions USD) | Year-over-Year Change |
|---|---|---|
| Vision Fund Net Gain | $2.4 | +210% |
| ARM Holdings Revenue | $1.2 | +18% |
| Total Assets Under Management | $158.0 | +4% |
| Net Asset Value (NAV) | $122.0 | +9% |
The risk remains high. SoftBank’s balance sheet is a complex web of cross-collateralized assets. If the AI bubble bursts, the $2.4 billion gain will evaporate faster than it appeared. Critics point to the high concentration of value in a handful of names. OpenAI, ARM, and a few others carry the entire weight of the portfolio. This is not diversification. This is a high-stakes bet on a single technological outcome. The volatility of the Japanese Yen also adds a layer of currency risk that SoftBank must hedge constantly. A sudden strengthening of the Yen could wipe out the gains from US-dollar denominated AI startups. This is the tightrope Son walks every day.
The Path Ahead
Market participants are now looking toward the next liquidity event. There are rumors of an OpenAI initial public offering or a massive secondary sale later this year. If OpenAI goes public, SoftBank’s paper gains turn into a war chest. This would allow Son to fund his ambitious “Project Izanagi,” a $100 billion venture to build an AI chip powerhouse. The goal is to rival Nvidia. It sounds impossible. But so did a $2.4 billion quarterly gain after the disasters of 2022. The market is no longer betting against Masayoshi Son. It is waiting to see how much higher he can push the stakes.
The next data point to watch is the ARM Holdings lock-up expiration for internal stakeholders and the subsequent impact on SoftBank’s loan-to-value ratio. If ARM holds its current valuation above $120 per share, SoftBank will have the leverage it needs to dominate the next phase of AI investment. The world will know by the end of the second quarter of 2026.
