The tape never blinks. Intel shares are twitching on mixed earnings revisions today. This is the friction between legacy baggage and future promises. The market is ignoring the red ink in favor of momentum. It is a dangerous game. Intel is currently a house divided. On one side, the product division is clawing back market share in the AI PC segment. On the other, the foundry business remains a capital intensive black hole. The latest revisions from sell-side analysts reflect this schizophrenia. Some are raising price targets based on the 18A node health. Others are slashing EPS estimates as the cost of building fabs in Ohio and Germany bites into the bottom line.
The Revision Paradox
The numbers are messy. Intel reported a series of mixed revisions that have left the street divided. Revenue projections for the upcoming quarter have seen a slight uptick, yet the net income guidance remains under pressure. This is the result of high depreciation costs. As Intel brings its new lithography machines online, the accounting reality is hitting the ledger. We are seeing a 12 percent increase in capital expenditure year over year, a figure that is barely offset by the latest round of federal subsidies. Analysts are struggling to model the margin recovery. The product side is lean, but the foundry side is bloated. This divergence is why the earnings revisions look like a Rorschach test. One analyst sees a turnaround, another sees a value trap.
Intel Stock Price Performance Leading to January 22 2026
Momentum Metrics vs Fundamental Gravity
The price action is decisively bullish despite the fundamental fog. Momentum metrics like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are hovering near 65, suggesting strong buying pressure without hitting the overbought ceiling of 70. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has staged a bullish crossover on the daily chart. This suggests that institutional money is positioning for a breakout. Why? Because the market is forward looking. It is pricing in the 18A process success before the first wafer is even shipped to a third party customer. Per the latest market data, the volume profile shows significant accumulation at the $45 level. This acts as a floor. If the stock holds this level, the technical setup overrides the earnings revision weakness. It is a classic ‘climbing the wall of worry’ scenario.
The Foundry Sinkhole
The technicals look great, but the plumbing is leaking. Intel Foundry is the pivot point for the entire company. To compete with TSMC, Intel must prove it can handle external volume. Currently, the foundry is a cost center. We are seeing massive outlays for R&D that are not yet matched by external revenue. The mixed revisions are a direct reflection of this delay. While the internal ‘Panther Lake’ chips are showing promise, the external customer pipeline remains opaque. According to recent SEC filings, the company is relying heavily on non-GAAP adjustments to present a cleaner picture of its operational health. Investors must look past the adjusted EBITDA and focus on the free cash flow. The free cash flow is still negative. This is the gravity that will eventually pull the momentum back to earth if the foundry does not start producing tangible wins soon.
The Manufacturing Gamble
Intel is betting the house on its 18A node. This is the first time in a decade that the company has a legitimate shot at reclaiming the process leadership crown. The ‘Mixed’ nature of the revisions is partly due to the high yield-learning costs associated with this transition. Early reports suggest that yields are improving, but they are not yet at the ‘Golden’ level required for high margin mass production. This creates a lag. The momentum we see in the stock is a bet on the second half of the year. Traders are front running the expected yield improvements. If those improvements do not materialize by the next quarterly update, the momentum will evaporate instantly. The margin for error is non existent.
The next critical data point for Intel arrives on February 12. This is the scheduled update for the internal yield metrics on the 18A process. Watch the 0.5 defects per square centimeter threshold. If Intel stays below that number, the momentum is justified. If they miss, the mixed revisions will turn into a full scale downgrade cycle.
