The World’s Worst Performing Market
Dhaka is bleeding. While global indices in the US and India posted gains this month, the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) emerged as the world’s worst performer in October 2025. The DSEX index plummeted 5.42 percent in the last three weeks alone, closing at a dismal 5,122. This is not just a regulatory hiccup; it is a systemic rejection of the narrative that agricultural innovation is saving the economy. For the 40 million Bangladeshis living below the poverty line, the modernization of rice processing has yielded more corporate profit than affordable calories. The numbers tell a darker story of market manipulation and the failure of international development projects to reach the dinner table.
The Global Price Decoupling
International rice prices are in freefall, yet the Bangladeshi consumer is paying a premium. In October 2024, Thai rice was trading at 535 dollars per tonne. By October 22, 2025, that price dropped to 374 dollars. This 30 percent decline on the global stage should have triggered a massive cooling of domestic inflation. Instead, retail prices for fine rice in Dhaka have climbed to 77.10 Taka per kilogram, up from 72.67 Taka a year ago. Per the latest report on food inflation, the gap between international trends and local reality is widening. This is the rice paradox: a record Boro harvest of 22.6 million tonnes has failed to lower prices because the supply chain is no longer in the hands of farmers. It is in the hands of the millers.
The Corporate Syndicate and the IFC Blind Spot
The International Finance Corporation (IFC) and the World Bank recently championed a 35 million dollar loan to Tanveer Food Limited, a subsidiary of the Meghna Group. The goal was an automated composite rice mill in Bogura with a processing capacity of 3.5 lakh tonnes annually. On paper, this is efficiency. In practice, it centralizes market power. When the government removed import duties to ease supply bottlenecks, the benefits did not flow to the public. As noted in the World Bank October 2025 Economic Update, private sector credit growth has slumped to 6.23 percent, the lowest in four years. Large millers are utilizing their credit lines to stockpile grain, effectively creating an artificial scarcity that keeps prices high even when the barns are full. The interim government has inherited a fragile economy where the law and order situation remains weak, making it nearly impossible to dismantle these entrenched rice syndicates.
The Taka’s Hidden Struggle
The currency stabilization narrative is another layer of the mirage. While the Taka is currently pegged around 120 to 122 against the US Dollar, this stability is artificial. It is maintained by high interest rates and tight monetary policy that has choked industrial activity. According to Bloomberg’s analysis of Bangladesh’s FX reserves, the current 18.4 billion dollar cushion is barely enough to cover three months of imports. The cost of energy is the silent killer. The removal of electricity subsidies, a key IMF condition for the 4.7 billion dollar loan package, has driven up the operational costs of these ‘modern’ automated mills. Those costs are being passed directly to the consumer. The following table illustrates the pricing pressure across the agricultural value chain as of October 2025.
| Commodity Segment | Wholesale Price (BDT/kg) | Retail Price (BDT/kg) | Annual Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Rice (Miniket/Nazirshail) | 68.50 | 77.10 | +6.1% |
| Medium Rice (Paijam/BR-28) | 54.20 | 62.43 | +1.9% |
| Coarse Rice (Swarna) | 48.00 | 52.28 | +1.6% |
| Wheat Flour (Atta) | 38.50 | 44.92 | +8.0% |
The 2026 Milestone
The next major pressure point is the Aman harvest, which begins in early November and concludes in January. This harvest is expected to bring a record supply to the market, but history suggests the millers will absorb the surplus to maintain high retail margins. Investors should ignore the glossy reports of ‘agricultural resilience’ and watch the credit growth figures for January 2026. If private sector credit remains below 7 percent while retail rice prices stay above 75 Taka, the current interim administration will face a severe legitimacy crisis ahead of the April 2026 national elections. The data point to watch is the 1.65 million metric tonne public food grain stock; if it falls below 1.2 million by year-end, the Taka’s stability will likely shatter under the weight of emergency import costs.
