The Mirage of the Great Digital Exodus
Data does not care about your outrage. One year after the re-election of Donald Trump, the predicted mass exodus from Elon Musk’s X has failed to reshape the digital power structure in the way activists promised. While the platform has certainly shrunk, it remains the undisputed king of real-time web traffic. The numbers from October 2025 tell a story of fragmentation, not total migration.
According to Similarweb data released this week, Bluesky, the once-buzzy alternative for liberal-leaning users, has seen its global mobile daily active users (DAU) plunge by 39.8 percent year-over-year. After peaking at roughly 6 million DAUs in March 2025, the platform has withered to just 3.5 million as of October. The sugar high of political protest has worn off; leaving behind a quiet digital corridor where retention remains the primary enemy.
Threads and the New Mobile Hegemony
Meta is the house that always wins. While X and Bluesky fought for the ideological soul of the internet, Mark Zuckerberg quietly built a mobile juggernaut. In October 2025, Threads officially surpassed X in global daily active mobile users for the first month in history. Threads recorded 132.5 million DAUs, edging past X’s 128.8 million. This represents a 53 percent surge for Threads over the last twelve months.
The technical mechanism behind this shift is simple: network effect inertia. Threads leverages the existing Instagram graph, allowing it to convert passive scrollers into active participants without the friction of building a new social circle. X, meanwhile, saw its mobile DAU drop 13.3 percent over the same period. The platform is not dying, but it is becoming a leaner, more specialized tool for its core base, rather than the global town square it once claimed to be.
The Financial Realities of 2025
Sentiment does not always track with solvency. Bloomberg reports from late Q3 2025 indicate that X is on track to generate approximately $2.9 billion in total revenue this year. This is a far cry from the $4.4 billion Twitter generated in 2022, but it marks a stabilization from the $2.6 billion floor hit in 2024. The return of big-name advertisers, prompted by Musk’s new advisory role in the Trump administration, has provided a critical liquidity injection.
Contrast this with Bluesky, which remains functionally pre-revenue. The platform has explored subscription models but lacks the infrastructure to compete with the Meta ad machine. Investors are beginning to question the long-term viability of a network that spikes during political crises but bleeds users during periods of governance. The 2025 data suggests that users want utility over ideological purity; they will tolerate a platform they dislike if that is where the information lives.
Key Performance Metrics: October 2024 vs October 2025
| Platform | Oct 2024 Mobile DAU | Oct 2025 Mobile DAU | Yearly Shift |
|---|---|---|---|
| X (Twitter) | 148.5 Million | 128.8 Million | -13.3% |
| Threads | 86.6 Million | 132.5 Million | +53.0% |
| Bluesky | 5.8 Million | 3.5 Million | -39.8% |
| Truth Social | ~680k | ~900k | +32.0% |
The Regulatory Pivot
The political climate of November 2025 has altered the regulatory outlook for these companies. Just two days ago, a federal judge dismissed the FTC’s long-running antitrust challenge against Meta regarding its Instagram and WhatsApp acquisitions. This ruling, combined with the elevation of Andrew Ferguson to FTC Chair, signals a significant shift toward a lighter regulatory touch for Big Tech. For investors, this removes a multi-year overhang that has suppressed Meta’s valuation.
X is navigating a different path. While it faces less pressure from the U.S. executive branch, it remains embroiled in technical disputes with European regulators over content moderation. However, the integration of xAI into the X ecosystem is expected to bolster revenue streams by 2026, shifting the platform’s identity from a social network to an AI training hub with a social interface.
The next major milestone for the industry arrives with the 2026 midterm cycle. Analysts are watching whether Threads can maintain its lead once Meta introduces its full advertising suite in early Q1. If Threads successfully monetizes without driving away its user base, the era of the specialized text-app may finally consolidate under a single, corporate roof. Watch the December 15 SEC filings from Meta for the first official breakdown of Threads-specific ad revenue projections.
