Capital flight is rarely quiet. On Friday, November 1, 2025, the Italian judiciary delivered a silence that resonated across the Milanese bourse. In a move that has paralyzed the Garavoglia family’s primary investment vehicle, tax police confirmed the precautionary seizure of €1.29 billion in assets from Lagfin, the Luxembourg-based holding company that anchors the Campari Group. This is not a mere regulatory hiccup. It is a fundamental challenge to the corporate architecture that allowed Italy’s premier spirits maker to move its legal seat to the Netherlands five years ago.
The Mechanics of a Fiscal Raid
The seizure, approved by a judge in Monza, targets what authorities describe as a "fraudulent declaration by means of artifice." At the heart of the dispute is the Exit Tax. When Davide Campari-Milano N.V. migrated its legal residency to Amsterdam in 2020, it triggered a valuation of assets that the Italian Revenue Agency now claims was artificially suppressed. Investigators allege that the technical absorption of Italian subsidiaries into the Luxembourg parent generated hidden capital gains exceeding €5.3 billion. While Bloomberg data shows the company’s operational strength remains intact, the legal cloud over its controlling shareholder has introduced a risk premium that institutional desks are struggling to price.
Institutional Exposure and Valuation Multiples
The timing is particularly corrosive. Just 72 hours ago, on October 29, Campari released its nine-month results for 2025, showing a resilient 1.5% organic sales growth. However, adjusted pre-tax profit fell by 5.7%, reflecting the weight of the Courvoisier acquisition and rising debt costs. The market is no longer looking at Aperol sales volumes alone. It is looking at the solvency of the holding company. Lagfin controls over 51% of the shares and more than 80% of the voting rights. If the €1.29 billion seizure remains in place, the liquidity required to service Lagfin’s own €429 million convertible bond, maturing in June 2028, becomes a focal point for credit analysts.
| Metric (Nov 01, 2025) | Campari Group (CPR.MI) | Diageo PLC (DGE.L) | Pernod Ricard (RI.PA) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price-to-Earnings (TTM) | 18.1x | 16.4x | 15.8x |
| Net Debt / EBITDA | 3.4x | 2.8x | 2.9x |
| 52-Week Stock Perf. | -24.5% | -8.2% | -11.4% |
The Dutch Residency Trap
Italy’s fiscal authorities are sending a clear message to the corporate elite: physical relocation does not erase historical liability. The Meloni government’s stance on tax residency has hardened, and the Reuters reporting on similar investigations suggests a broader crackdown on "letterbox" holding companies in Luxembourg and the Netherlands. For Campari, the irony is sharp. The Dutch move was intended to provide governance stability through loyalty voting; instead, it has provided a target for the Guardia di Finanza. The seizure represents roughly 16% of Campari’s total market capitalization, a figure that dwarfs the group’s annual net income.
A Leadership Vacuum in High Tide
Management turnover has exacerbated the volatility. With Francesco Mele taking the CFO seat this month and Simon Hunt still finding his footing as CEO after the abrupt departure of Matteo Fantacchiotti, the group lacks the long-tenured guidance required to navigate a billion-euro asset freeze. The Borsa Italiana has seen heavy outflows from domestic retail investors, while international funds are pivoting toward Diageo and Pernod Ricard, which offer cleaner balance sheets and less legal friction. The "Aperol growth story" is being drowned out by the "Lagfin solvency story."
The next critical threshold occurs in early 2026. By March 4, 2026, Campari must release its full-year 2025 audited accounts. Investors should watch the provision for legal risks on the balance sheet: if the figure exceeds €400 million, it will signal a definitive move toward a settlement that could necessitate a dividend cut or a dilutive capital increase at the holding level.
