The commodity supercycle has returned with a vengeance. As of November 01, 2025, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is no longer a passive observer of global markets but an aggressive architect of them. For years, the narrative around the DRC focused on ‘potential’ and ‘socioeconomic development,’ yet the reality on the ground this morning is one of calculated fiscal squeeze and artificial supply shocks. The math behind the recent price spikes is not merely a function of electric vehicle demand. It is a result of the most significant policy intervention in Kinshasa’s history.
The October Quota Squeeze
Prices have decoupled from reality. On October 23, 2025, LME cobalt hit a 32-month high of $48,570 per metric ton, a staggering jump from the $21,000 lows seen in February. This 130% recovery was not organic. It was triggered by the official implementation of the DRC’s new export quota system on October 16, 2025. Under the authority of ARECOMS, the national regulator, the government has capped exports for the remainder of the year at exactly 18,125 metric tons. By choking the flow of roughly 75% of the world’s cobalt supply, the DRC has forced a market that was in surplus just six months ago into a state of panic.
The skepticism lies in the sustainability of this maneuver. While the state-owned miner Gecamines celebrates the price recovery, battery manufacturers are already accelerating their pivot to Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) chemistries to bypass cobalt entirely. Per a report from Reuters, the sudden tightening of the market has left spot buyers scrambling, but long-term contracts remain the primary vehicle for supply. If Kinshasa keeps the faucet closed too long, they risk making their most valuable mineral obsolete.
The 10 Percent Royalty Trap
Fiscal policy has become a blunt instrument. In a joint circular issued just days ago, the ministries of mines and finance introduced a rule that has sent shockwaves through the boardrooms of Glencore and CMOC Group. Miners are now required to pay a 10% royalty in advance within 48 hours of filing their export declarations. Failure to comply results in an immediate revocation of their hard-won export quotas. This is a desperate liquidity grab to fund the 2025 Finance Bill, which projects a 41% increase in mining revenues to roughly $5 billion.
The risk is clear. This ‘pay-to-play’ model ignores the operational realities of logistics in a country where the infrastructure is still largely theoretical. The 10% royalty is calculated on the ‘strategic mineral’ designation, a status cobalt has held since 2018 but is only now being leveraged with full executive force. For a company moving $100 million of ore, finding $10 million in cash within 48 hours in a region with limited banking liquidity is a nightmare. This is not ‘socioeconomic development,’ it is a shakedown masquerading as regulation.
Copper at Record Highs: The $12,000 Anchor
Copper is the only thing keeping the lights on. On Monday, October 27, 2025, benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange hit an all-time record of $12,960 per metric ton. As of today, November 1, it is hovering around $12,405. This surge is critical for the DRC because the revamped $7 billion Sicomines infrastructure deal, signed in March 2024, is tied directly to the price of the red metal. According to the International Monetary Fund, the DRC’s GDP growth of 5.7% for 2025 is almost entirely dependent on these prices remaining above the $8,000 ‘infrastructure trigger’ threshold.
The catch? The infrastructure finance comes from Sicomines’ profits. If the price of copper falls below $5,200, the road-building stops. While $12,000 seems safe today, the market is historically volatile. The 2025 budget assumes these record prices will persist, leaving zero margin for error. If Chinese demand softens or if US trade tariffs expand to include copper imports, the DRC’s entire development plan for 2026 will collapse like a house of cards.
Infrastructure and the Logistics Logjam
Roads are being promised, but the dirt is barely moving. The Chinese consortium led by Sinohydro and China Railway Group has pledged $324 million annually for road infrastructure through 2040. However, the current reality involves a 900km stretch of dirt road between Mbuji-Mayi and Nguba that remains a bottleneck for mineral transport. Logistics costs in the Lualaba province have risen 15% in the last quarter alone due to ‘security surcharges’ and informal ‘toll’ points. The $7 billion deal is a 17-year promise, but the miners need functional asphalt today to justify the 35% tax on regular profits and the 50% ‘superprofits’ tax that kicks in when prices rise 25% above feasibility studies.
The market is currently watching the Kamoa-Kakula expansion. It is expected to hit 600,000 tonnes of concentrate by the end of this quarter. This single project represents the DRC’s best hope for fiscal stability, yet even it is subject to the same predatory royalty prepayments and quota restrictions that are choking smaller operators. The ‘Cantinflas’ era of vague promises is over, replaced by a cold, hard fiscal reality where the state is taking its cut before the ore even leaves the mine gate.
The Next Milestone
Investors must look past the current price euphoria. The next critical inflection point occurs on January 15, 2026, when ARECOMS is scheduled to release the annual export allocations for the new year. The preliminary figure to watch is the 96,600-ton annual ceiling. If the government maintains this restrictive cap into 2026, the global deficit in refined cobalt could exceed 15,000 tons by mid-year, likely pushing spot prices toward the $60,000 mark. However, keep a close eye on the ‘strategic reserve’ of 9,600 tons held under discretionary control; how those tons are allocated will reveal who truly holds the keys to the Congolese treasury in 2026.
